Oxford Says Evolution Statistically Improbable

In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth…God said, “Let the land produce vegetation: seed-bearing plants and trees on the land that bear fruit with seed in it, according to their various kinds.” And it was so…And God said, “Let the water teem with living creatures, and let birds fly above the earth across the vault of the sky.”… And God said, “Let the land produce living creatures according to their kinds: the livestock, the creatures that move along the ground, and the wild animals, each according to its kind.”… Then God said, “Let us make mankind in our image, in our likeness…    Genesis 1, selected verses

Oxford University researchers outlined the evolutionary steps needed to produce human beings.  The statisticians did their probability studies and came up with this answer:

…the evolution of intelligent life is ‘exceptionally rare’, and that human-like civilisations are extremely unlikely to exist on other planets.

The headline to the article paraphrased it this way:

We’re as good as it gets: Intelligent life is extremely UNLIKELY to exist anywhere else in the universe because it took a series of miracles for humans to evolve, say scientists

The probability study shows that, on its own, for evolution to produce man would take longer than the expected lifetime of earth.  The sun would go dark, and any life that might have tried to start would be snuffed out without the sun.

This study is actually a “twofer.”  First, it shows that evolution as described for us couldn’t happen within the projected lifetime of the planet, let alone to date.  In a bow to evolution theory, they still hold it to be true, but there must have been some pretty incredible transitions for us to have gotten where we are.

Second, the idea that there must be intelligent life out there is highly unlikely.  Oxford says that for another planet to have the same evolutionary “luck” that earth had is problematic at best.  It would take longer that any star would be expected to last.  Again, from the article:

‘Together with the dispersed timing of key evolutionary transitions and plausible priors, one can conclude that the expected transition times likely exceed the lifetime of Earth, perhaps by many orders of magnitude. 

‘In turn, this suggests that intelligent life is likely to be exceptionally rare.’

In addition –

The team quote American evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, who said that if the ‘tape of life’ were to be rerun, ‘the chance becomes vanishingly small that anything like human intelligence’ would occur. 

‘What we added was a statistical approach that allows us to get estimates of just how unlikely the steps could be,’ Dr Sandberg told MailOnline.

Yes, that was a quotation from a real, evolutionary biologist, admitting his discipline might be in error.  He might not put it that way, but that’s the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn from his own words.

Part of the motivation for this study is an observation by the nuclear physicist, Enrico Fermi, who posited what is now called The Fermi Paradox.  Fermi was a theoretical physicist whose entire window to existence was math.  Everything had to be expressed as a balanced equation to be completely understood.

With his deep, mathematical background, Fermi asked why, given the estimated 200B to 400B stars in the universe, there has not been one sign of intelligent alien life.  Ever.  He thought it more than extraordinary that, given the opportunities for intelligent life to exist in so vast a universe, not one signal from another world had been received.  His conclusion was that there must be some sort of barrier that limits the rise of intelligent life.

That, of course, would be that God chose to create life on earth and nowhere else.  The rest of the universe was created to have “…lights in the vault of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark sacred times, and days and years, 15 and let them be lights in the vault of the sky to give light on the earth.”    Genesis 1:14-15

I know.  People like to say that it’s human arrogance to think that we are the only intelligent life in the universe.  Let’s change that to “Humble Gratitude” that God would love us so much that He made every piece to accomplish what He wanted for us.

Secular scientists and atheists like to ridicule Christians for having too much faith in something they can’t see while ignoring good old science.  They think we are either too stupid or too obstinate to see what science tells us.

Meanwhile, they have too much faith in something – evolution – that their own science shows more and more to be nearly impossible.

For related posts on evolution, see:

A Chemical Big Bang?

Darwin Can’t Explain the Origen of Species

Down the (Black) Rabbit Hole

Evolution and the Geologic Record


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